Jacksonville, Florida, December 20, 2025
Real estate experts predict a 7% decline in home sales and a drop in home prices by 1.5% to 2% in Jacksonville for 2026. This contrasts with a national trend projected to see increases in both sales and prices. Factors like a surge in housing inventory and stabilizing mortgage rates are contributing to this shift. Current market conditions show a 1.8% decrease in median home prices, highlighting the changing dynamics in the Jacksonville housing market.
Jacksonville, Florida: Projected Decline in Home Sales and Prices for 2026
Real estate experts anticipate a 7% decrease in Jacksonville’s home sales in 2026, with home prices expected to decline by 1.5% to 2%. This trend contrasts with the national forecast, which predicts a 2% increase in home sales and a 2.2% rise in prices for the same period.
As we look towards the future, it’s important to consider the factors influencing this projected shift in Jacksonville’s real estate landscape. A remarkable resurgence of housing inventory in Jacksonville and across Florida is outpacing market trends in other regions of the country. This increase in availability not only means more options for buyers but also promises enhanced affordability, especially for those who have struggled to break into the market.
Current mortgage rate projections hover around 6.3% for 2026, a decrease from rates observed earlier this year. This potential for lower mortgage rates may further contribute to improving affordability, reflecting a positive sign for potential homebuyers.
Current Market Conditions
As of December 2025, Jacksonville’s housing market is in a cooling phase. The median home price has dropped by 1.8% year-over-year, settling at approximately $304,495. Homes are now spending an average of 63 days on the market—up from 49 days a year prior. Additionally, the volume of home sales has decreased by 8.9%, and the city is grappling with a significant home purchase cancellation rate of 18.4%, one of the highest rates nationally.
Outlook for 2026
Looking ahead to 2026, the Jacksonville housing market is anticipated to maintain a trajectory of steady growth driven by key factors such as population increases and economic diversification. Even amid the expected decrease in sales and prices, the forecast indicates that home prices are likely to rise modestly. Predictions suggest a potential increase of 2.5% to 4.5%, bringing the median home price from around $305,000 to a range between $312,600 and $318,700.
This outlook is promising, emphasizing the importance of supporting local economic growth initiatives. With an influx of new residents and a diversifying economy, Jacksonville is in a strong position to absorb these market fluctuations and emerge resilient.
Factors Influencing the Market Shift
The primary factor driving the projected downturn in the housing market is the recent surge in housing inventory. This rapid increase in available properties for sale is helping to alleviate affordability issues that many buyers have faced in recent years. As inventory levels rise, buyers have a better chance to find homes that suit their needs at more reasonable prices.
In addition to rising inventory, the relatively stable mortgage rates contribute to a favorable environment for homebuyers. Continued economic growth in the region indicates that as the market stabilizes, prospective homeowners may find opportunities to invest without facing the high price barriers experienced in previous years.
Conclusion
In summary, while Jacksonville’s housing market is experiencing a downturn characterized by reduced sales and prices for 2026, the long-term outlook remains positive. Supported by economic fundamentals, a growing population, and improving affordability, there are promising signs for Jacksonville’s real estate future. Local entrepreneurs and small businesses continue to play a vital role in fostering economic development, paving the way for a resilient Jacksonville that supports both innovation and homeownership opportunities.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is the projected decline in Jacksonville’s home sales for 2026?
Real estate experts anticipate a 7% decrease in Jacksonville’s home sales in 2026.
How are home prices expected to change in Jacksonville in 2026?
Home prices in Jacksonville are expected to decline by 1.5% to 2% in 2026.
What factors are contributing to the decline in Jacksonville’s housing market?
The primary factor contributing to the downturn is the rapid rebound of housing inventory in Jacksonville and Florida.
What is the current state of Jacksonville’s housing market?
As of December 2025, Jacksonville’s housing market is experiencing a cooling period, with a median home price decline of 1.8% year-over-year to $304,495, and homes spending an average of 63 days on the market.
What is the long-term outlook for Jacksonville’s housing market?
The long-term outlook remains positive, with home prices projected to rise modestly through 2026, supported by population increases, economic diversification, and housing affordability relative to other major Florida metros.
Key Features of Jacksonville’s Housing Market Outlook
| Feature | Details |
|---|---|
| Projected Decline in Home Sales | 7% decrease in 2026. |
| Expected Change in Home Prices | Decline of 1.5% to 2% in 2026. |
| Primary Contributing Factor | Rapid rebound of housing inventory in Jacksonville and Florida. |
| Current Market Conditions | Median home price decline of 1.8% year-over-year to $304,495; homes spending an average of 63 days on the market. |
| Long-Term Outlook | Positive, with home prices projected to rise modestly through 2026, supported by population increases and economic diversification. |
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Author: STAFF HERE JACKSONVILLE WRITER
The JACKSONVILLE STAFF WRITER represents the experienced team at HEREJacksonville.com, your go-to source for actionable local news and information in Jacksonville, Duval County, and beyond. Specializing in "news you can use," we cover essential topics like product reviews for personal and business needs, local business directories, politics, real estate trends, neighborhood insights, and state news affecting the area—with deep expertise drawn from years of dedicated reporting and strong community input, including local press releases and business updates. We deliver top reporting on high-value events such as the Jacksonville Jazz Festival, Riverside Arts Market, and World of Nations Celebration. Our coverage extends to key organizations like the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce and JAXUSA Partnership, plus leading businesses in logistics, healthcare, and entertainment that power the local economy such as CSX Corporation, Baptist Health, and VyStar Credit Union. As part of the broader HERE network, including HEREOrlando.com, HEREStPetersburg.com, HERETallahassee.com, and HERETampa.com, we provide comprehensive, credible insights into Florida's dynamic landscape.
